New Records, Surging Oil, and a Semiconductor Supercycle All in One Week

In one of the most contradictory weeks of 2026, U.S. equity markets managed to set new all-time highs while oil surged more than 15% on renewed Strait of Hormuz closure fears. The S&P 500 rose +0.55% for the week to close at a new record of 7,165.08, while the Nasdaq gained +1.50% to reach a new all-time high of 24,836.60, propelled by an extraordinary week for semiconductor stocks. The Dow Jones slipped -0.48% and the NYSE Composite edged -0.76%, as energy sector gains were offset by software and financial weakness.

The week's dominant story was a stunning reversal in oil prices. After plunging 14% the prior week on ceasefire hopes, WTI crude surged +15.2% to close at $95.13/barrel as U.S.–Iran peace talks stalled, Trump ordered the Navy to intercept Iranian tankers, and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to commercial traffic. Gold fell 3.4% to $4,712/oz as rising yields and higher oil made yield-bearing assets more attractive, breaking its four-week winning streak.

Semiconductor Supercycle Drives the Rally

What kept the broader market positive despite surging oil was a historic week for chip stocks. Intel surged +23.6% Friday alone after reporting blockbuster Q1 earnings that beat on both revenue and guidance. CEO Pat Gelsinger cited strong AI-driven foundry demand, and Tesla’s Elon Musk indicated his company may spend roughly $3 billion with Intel. AMD gained +13.9%. Nvidia reclaimed the $5 trillion market cap milestone. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose for an 18th consecutive session, a streak analysts described as perhaps the strongest semi rally in history.

Big Tech: One Giant Win, One Notable Miss

Alphabet delivered a clean beat across Search, YouTube, and Google Cloud, with AI infrastructure commentary that energized the entire sector. Analysts at BMO raised their price target to $410. On the other side, IBM fell 7.5% and ServiceNow tumbled 17% after both companies disappointed on outlook. Meta confirmed it will cut 8,000 jobs, or 10% of its workforce, as it redirects spending toward AI. The DOJ dropped its investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, removing a political overhang that had periodically rattled bond markets. UMich consumer sentiment improved to a final April reading of 49.8 (still a record low) from the preliminary 47.6, suggesting some ceasefire-period mood improvement.

Markets Digest Jobs Beat, CPI, and Iran's Next Move

The week ahead is one of the most consequential on the 2026 economic calendar. The Federal Reserve meets April 28–29 : its first meeting since the Iran war began. Markets are watching closely for Chair Powell’s tone on the oil-driven inflation spike: core CPI is cool at 2.6%, but headline hit 3.3% and oil is back near $95. Meanwhile, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all report earnings, making this the single biggest week for Magnificent Seven results. And the first estimate of Q1 GDP will reveal how the economy held up as the war began.

Mon Apr 28: Peace Talks Resume, Markets React

Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is expected in Islamabad for resumed talks with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff. Any credible progress : or breakdown : will dominate the Monday open more than any earnings release. Visa also reports Monday; its consumer spending data is the closest real-time proxy for household activity during the conflict.

Tue Apr 29: FOMC Day 1, Apple and Amazon Earnings

Apple reports Q1 results after the close : the first major read on iPhone demand, services revenue, and AI integration uptake in the context of the Iran conflict. Amazon also reports; AWS cloud revenue and advertising commentary are the key metrics. The FOMC begins its two-day deliberations.

Wed Apr 30: FOMC Decision, GDP, Meta and Microsoft

The week’s biggest day. The Fed announces its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET and Chair Powell holds his press conference at 2:30 PM. The advance estimate of Q1 GDP releases in the morning : economists expect a slowdown to approximately 1.8% annualized from Q4’s 2.4%, reflecting early war-period disruption to trade and travel. Meta and Microsoft report after the close.

Oil at $95.13/bbl, the 10-year at 4.32%, and the VIX at 19.16 all suggest markets are pricing in continued uncertainty. The S&P 500 all-time high of 7,165 is the level to defend. A dovish Powell, any ceasefire progress, or a stronger-than-expected GDP print could push equities meaningfully higher. A hawkish surprise or fresh Strait escalation risks a swift reversal.