Bond Rout Shakes Stocks, Walmart Miss, and Jackson Hole Looms

U.S. equities snapped a three-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 falling -1.43% to 7,674.37 (its first losing week since late July) after the bond market took center stage. The Nasdaq lost -2.05% to 26,180.45, the Dow shed -0.85% to 53,277.01, and the Russell 2000 gave back -1.65% from its recent all-time high to 3,017.87. Despite the setback, all major indexes remain solidly in positive YTD territory: the Russell 2000 leads at +21.59%, with the Nasdaq at +12.64% and the S&P 500 at +12.11%.

The week's central story was a violent move in long-dated Treasury yields. The 30-year yield climbed above 5.25% (its highest since 2007) as investors questioned Washington's ability to manage rising borrowing costs against surging AI-related debt issuance. The 10-year finished at 4.69%, up 14 basis points on the week. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the government would at least DOUBLE its long-maturity buybacks to $4 billion per quarter, sparking a relief rally in bonds and a 4% jump in gold. But by Thursday, the buyback effect faded: the Dow tumbled -704 points, the S&P 500 lost -0.9%, and yields resumed their climb. Friday brought a partial recovery, but the damage was done.

Walmart Miss Rattles Consumer Story

Thursday's selloff was amplified by an unexpectedly weak Walmart earnings report. The retail giant fell -9.15% after reporting slowing U.S. sales growth: its single-day drop accounted for nearly the entire Dow decline. Because Walmart serves more American middle-class households than any other retailer, its guidance is widely read as a real-time barometer of consumer health. Elsewhere in retail, Home Depot, Target, and TJX also reported: results were mixed. But Friday brought a bright spot: Ross Stores jumped roughly +14% after reporting Q2 comparable sales up 10% and raising its full-year earnings forecast.

Crypto Rally, Iran Sanctions, and Warsh's Coming Speech

Bitcoin surged approximately +22% for the week after President Trump began pushing for passage of the Clarity Act. Crypto-adjacent stocks joined the rally: Robinhood +14%, Coinbase +8%, Strategy (MSTR) +6%+. Oil prices climbed for a second straight week as the Trump administration threatened "crushing" sanctions on Iran, dashing hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI settled near $83.50 and Brent near $88. The dollar index (DXY) slumped to a three-month low of 98.80, while gold surged to $4,642/oz, a three-month high. All roads now lead to Jackson Hole (Aug 27-29): new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote address as chair on Friday Aug 28, just 19 days before the Sept 15-16 FOMC decision. Rate hike odds for September currently sit around 33-40% per CME FedWatch.

Nvidia Earnings, PCE Inflation, and Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut

The most consequential week of the summer. Nvidia reports Q2 earnings Wednesday evening (Aug 26): the single most important earnings event of the AI trade this year. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday Aug 28 at 10:00 AM ET: 19 days before the Sept 15-16 FOMC decision. And July PCE inflation lands the same morning (Warsh will not see it before his speech). Layer in a jumpy bond market and a Fed that just split 9-3 on rates (widest dissent in ~two decades), and this week could reset positioning through year-end.

Mon Aug 24: Fed Speakers & Pre-Jackson Hole Positioning

Multiple FOMC officials scheduled to speak; the market will parse tone into the Jackson Hole event. Existing home sales data also releases. New home sales Tuesday. Little primary data but plenty of positioning risk.

Tue Aug 25: New Home Sales & Consumer Confidence

August Conference Board consumer confidence at 10:00 AM ET. After UMich sentiment slid to 51.0 in preliminary August (from 55.2 July), the Board reading provides a second read on whether the consumer is genuinely wobbling. Also: Best Buy earnings and Toll Brothers.

Wed Aug 26: Q2 GDP (2nd Est) & NVIDIA

Q2 GDP second estimate at 8:30 AM ET. Nvidia Q2 earnings after the close: 36 hours before Warsh at Jackson Hole. Consensus is for revenue near $53B and continued AI capex commentary. Nvidia's Blackwell ramp, China commentary, and any margin guidance move the whole tech complex.

Thu Aug 27: Jackson Hole Opens & Jobless Claims

Jackson Hole opens. Kansas City Fed hosts central bankers from ~70 countries. Weekly jobless claims. Pending home sales. Any Fed governor commentary before Warsh's Friday speech will move rates.

Fri Aug 28: WARSH SPEAKS & PCE Inflation

The main event. July PCE inflation at 8:30 AM ET (Fed's preferred gauge). Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote at 10:00 AM ET: his first as chair. He has said the speech will be "like a blank sheet of paper" and has explicitly downplayed near-term guidance. But history has shown Jackson Hole speeches often move markets sharply.

With the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.25% (highest since 2007), the DXY at a three-month low, and gold at a three-month high, cross-asset positioning has become distinctly defensive. The S&P 500 at 7,674.37 remains 1.4% below its all-time close of 7,798.99 (Aug 13). A dovish Warsh combined with in-line PCE and a Nvidia beat could push equities back to records. A hawkish Warsh combined with hot PCE or a Nvidia miss risks a broader correction heading into September.