📈 Markets Finally Get Good News — Oil Didn't Get the Memo (Weekly Update, Apr 10)

Market Intelligence Report Summary

After five straight weeks of watching their portfolios do their best impression of a ski slope, investors finally caught a break this week. A fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire sent stocks surging to their best weekly performance since November — and sent oil prices plunging faster than a trader's confidence on a bad earnings call.

Here's your week at a glance:

📊 THE SCORECARD

• S&P 500 ........... 6,816.89   ▲ +3.56% this week
• Dow Jones ........ 47,916.57  ▲ +3.04% this week
• Nasdaq ............ 22,902.90  ▲ +4.68% this week
• Russell 2000 .....  2,630.59  ▲ +3.97% this week  ← YTD leader at +5.06%
• WTI Crude Oil ....    $95.63  ▼ -14.3% this week  ← Ceasefire does its thing
• Gold ................. $4,771  ▲ Still doing Gold things

🕊️ THE BIG STORY: CEASEFIRE (SORT OF)

On Wednesday, Trump announced a two-week pause in strikes on Iran, contingent on the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Oil fell 16% in a single session: its biggest drop since April 2020. Stocks loved it. Energy executives did not.

The catch? The ceasefire is about as sturdy as a sandcastle at high tide. Iranian officials have already flagged violations, the Strait remains partially closed, and U.S. and Iranian delegations are meeting in Islamabad this weekend to figure out if this peace thing is going to stick.

In short: cautiously optimistic, with one eye on the headlines.

📉 THE BUZZKILL: CPI & CONSUMER SENTIMENT

Friday delivered a one-two punch that kept the celebration from getting too loud:

• March CPI came in at 3.3% year-over-year: a two-year high, driven almost entirely by a 10.9% surge in energy costs. The good news: core inflation (ex-food and energy) was a tame 2.6%, giving the Fed room to breathe.

• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 47.6: a record low in the survey's 70+ year history. Consumers are, to put it professionally, not thrilled. (98% of those surveyed hadn't heard about the ceasefire yet, so there's hope for next month's number.)

• The U.S. Dollar fell for the 7th time in 8 sessions and slipped below 99. The greenback is having a rough spring.

👀 WHAT'S COMING NEXT WEEK

Buckle up — it's a big one:

• 📅 Mon Apr 13 — Goldman Sachs earnings. How did Wall Street navigate a war?
• 📅 Tue Apr 14 — March Retail Sales. Did consumers shop, or did $4 gas stop them?
• 📅 Wed Apr 15 — Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, ASML earnings
• 📅 Thu Apr 16 — TSMC earnings (AI chip demand clues), Netflix, weekly jobless claims
• 📅 Sat Apr 11 — Islamabad peace talks (over the weekend — markets will react Monday)

The ceasefire is the wildcard above all wildcards. One headline from Pakistan this weekend could move markets more than every earnings report combined.

Warm regards,

The NeQuit Wealth & Investment Management Team

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Data sourced from Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve.
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