June closed the best quarter for U.S. equities since the second quarter of 2020, but the month itself split the tape. The S&P 500 ended June at 7,449.36, a 1.72% pullback from May's record, while the Nasdaq shed 3.46% as the AI-memory trade cooled after Micron's blowout print. The Dow pushed to a fresh record above 52,300, gaining 2.49%, and the Russell 2000 continued its extraordinary run — +3.60% for the month and +21.86% year-to-date, on pace for its best first half since 1991. Beneath the surface, June was less about direction than about repricing: a signed Iran ceasefire memorandum, a hawkish pivot at the Fed, and a violent unwind of the war-premium trade in gold, Bitcoin, and crude.

The Islamabad Memorandum · Strait of Hormuz Reopened

On June 17, President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Islamabad Memorandum — an interim 60-day framework to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump signed the document at the Palace of Versailles during a G7 dinner with President Macron; Pezeshkian countersigned in Tehran hours later. Under the terms, Iran committed to reopening the Strait to unimpeded commercial transit for the 60-day window, agreed not to develop nuclear weapons pending a final deal, and moved to de-mine the shipping lane. In exchange, the U.S. lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports, terminated a broad set of sanctions, and released frozen assets. Reopening crossed the initial threshold on June 18. Crude reacted with a straight-line collapse: WTI fell from $87.36 at the end of May to $69.50 by month-end — its worst monthly performance since late 2021 — and Brent slipped near $75, both their lowest levels since March.

The Warsh Fed's Hawkish Debut

Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting concluded on June 17 with a unanimous decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. The consequential news, however, was in the dots: the Committee removed its prior 2026 rate-cut expectation and, for the first time in three years, signaled the possibility of a hike. Of the eighteen participants, nine penciled in at least one hike, eight saw no change, and one looked for a cut. The Summary of Economic Projections lifted the 2026 headline PCE inflation forecast to 3.6% and core PCE to 3.3% — a full point higher than the March projections. Chair Warsh, consistent with his long-standing skepticism of the SEP framework, did not submit his own dot. The post-meeting statement was materially shorter, stripped of forward-guidance language, and offered no explicit path lower.

May CPI: 4.2% — a Three-Year High

The May CPI report, released June 10, printed a headline 4.2% year-over-year — the highest reading since April 2023 and up from April's 3.8%. Core CPI accelerated to 2.9%, its highest level since September 2025. Energy pulled the tape higher yet again, up 23.5% year-over-year with gasoline running +40.5%. On June 25, the May PCE report corroborated the picture: headline PCE at 4.1% and core PCE at 3.4% — the highest core reading since October 2023. Even with crude falling in real time, the year-over-year comparisons hardened, giving Chair Warsh's dot-plot pivot immediate empirical cover.

Micron's Trillion-Dollar Quarter

The June earnings marquee belonged to Micron Technology. Reporting fiscal Q3 on June 24, the memory-chip maker delivered $41.46 billion in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 — obliterating analyst forecasts and sending shares up 18% in pre-market trading. Management disclosed sixteen long-term contracts with data-center operators and automakers that lock in HBM4 supply for three-to-five years, effectively "selling out" 2026 and much of 2027 capacity. Micron closed the month with a market capitalization above $1 trillion and a trailing one-year price gain approaching 700%. The strength, however, did not lift the broader semiconductor tape: Nvidia, AMD, and Micron itself led a late-month risk-off rotation on Fed hawkishness, dragging the Nasdaq into the red for June even as Q2 finished as the strongest quarter since 2020.

Supreme Court: Fed Independence Preserved (Narrowly)

On June 29, the Supreme Court ruled 5–4 in Trump v. Cook that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook may remain in her position pending further litigation, blocking the administration's attempt to remove her over disputed mortgage-fraud allegations. In the same opinion cluster the Court expanded the President's power to remove commissioners at other independent agencies — most immediately, FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter — sharply narrowing the Humphrey's Executor precedent. The market read the outcome as net-positive for Fed independence, though the tighter framework leaves the door open for future litigation. Treasuries firmed on the ruling; the dollar index closed near 101.34, its highest since January.

Data Bookends: May Jobs and Q1 GDP Revision

The May Employment Situation, released June 5, beat every economist forecast: nonfarm payrolls rose +172,000, the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, and prior-two-month revisions added a combined +93,000. The Q1 GDP third estimate, released June 25, revised growth up to 2.1% annualized from the 2.0% advance print — a rare positive revision driven principally by softer imports rather than stronger domestic demand. Together, the two reports blunted recession-risk chatter and gave the Fed's hawkish pivot additional room to breathe.

The Haven Trade Cracks

Gold, the standout performer of the prior six months, gave back a decisive slice of its war premium: the LBMA PM Fix closed June at $4,026.45, an 11.43% monthly loss and its worst month in several years. Central-bank buying continued but ETF outflows accelerated as real rates ticked higher and the dollar firmed. Bitcoin extended its slide, ending June near $58,504 — down 20.81% on the month and 33.14% year-to-date, the lowest level since September 2024. The U.S. Dollar Index, meanwhile, jumped 2.43% to 101.34, its highest close since January, as the removal of the 2026 rate-cut narrative widened the front-end rate differential against G10 peers.