A revenue miss that doesn't matter.

Gross Bookings, Adjusted EBITDA, and Q2 guidance all topped expectations, sending the stock up nearly 10% despite the headline shortfall.

Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) reported Q1 2026 results on May 6, 2026, with a print that on first read looked like a miss but on second read was a clean beat on every metric that matters. Revenue of $13.20 billion grew 14% YoY but came in approximately $90 million short of the $13.29B consensus, driven entirely by softer-than-expected Mobility revenue ($6.8B vs $7.11B estimate). However, Gross Bookings of $53.72 billion grew 25% reported (21% constant currency, the third straight quarter above 21%) and beat the $52.80B consensus by $920 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $2.50 billion grew 33%, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.72 grew 44% YoY, both ahead of expectations.

GAAP diluted EPS came in at $0.13, sharply below the $0.70 consensus, but the gap is fully explained by a $1.5 billion pre-tax headwind from mark-to-market revaluations on Uber's equity stakes in Asian ride-hailing operators Didi and Grab. Excluding that non-cash item, the underlying picture was strong: Operating Income up 57% to $1.9B, FCF of $2.3B, and $3.0 billion of share buybacks executed in the quarter: more than 65% above the $1.8B repurchased in Q1 2025. Q2 guidance: Gross Bookings of $56.25B-$57.75B (above $56.17B consensus) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.78-$0.82. The stock jumped roughly 10% intraday from a $73.20 pre-print close.

Headline KPIs at a Glance

Headline miss, structural beat.

Q1 2026 revenue of $13.20 billion grew 14% YoY but missed the $13.29B consensus by ~$90 million. The shortfall was concentrated in Mobility revenue, which came in at $6.8 billion versus the $7.11B consensus, with management citing a "complex macro backdrop including weather disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and gas price volatility." Since U.S. combat operations began in Iran in February, U.S. gas prices have risen approximately 50%.

Where the beat actually showed up

Gross Bookings of $53.72 billion grew 25% reported and 21% constant currency, beating the $52.80B consensus by ~$920 million. CFO Balaji Krishnamurthy highlighted the milestone of three consecutive quarters of Gross Bookings growth above 21% on a constant-currency basis. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.72 cleared the $0.71 consensus, reflecting 44% YoY growth even with the equity-revaluation headwind.

Every headline metric up double-digits.

Every operational metric pointed in the right direction. Trips of 3.6 billion grew 20% YoY. Monthly Active Platform Consumers reached 199 million, up 17%. Adjusted EBITDA grew 33% to $2.50B, reflecting an EBITDA margin of 4.6% on Gross Bookings (up from 4.4% in Q1 2025). Non-GAAP Operating Income grew 42% to $1.9B at a 3.5% margin of Gross Bookings (up from 3.1% prior year).

Uber One: 50 million members

Uber's subscription tier crossed the 50 million member milestone in Q1, with members now driving approximately half of total Gross Bookings across Mobility and Delivery. Membership penetration is the single largest secondary lever for Uber's lifetime value math: each percentage point of member share lifts frequency and lowers churn. CEO Dara Khosrowshahi cited Uber One adoption as the company's highest-conviction operational metric heading into the second half of 2026.

Above consensus on bookings and EBITDA.

Uber's Q2 2026 guidance is what really moved the stock. Gross Bookings guidance of $56.25 billion to $57.75 billion implies 18% to 22% constant-currency growth and beat the $56.17B consensus by $80 million at the low end of the range. Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.70 billion to $2.80 billion was well above the prior $2.55B consensus, and non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.78-$0.82 implies 31% to 38% YoY growth.

What this says about the run rate

The midpoint of Q2 guidance ($57B in Gross Bookings, $2.75B in Adjusted EBITDA) implies a run-rate trajectory that, if extrapolated, would put full-year 2026 Gross Bookings comfortably above $220 billion and Adjusted EBITDA above $11 billion: both materially ahead of the implied year-start consensus model. The guidance also implicitly reaffirms management's view that the Mobility revenue softness in Q1 was transitory rather than structural.

$3 billion buyback, largest quarterly pace ever.

Q1 cash flow performance was the cleanest in Uber's history. Operating cash flow reached $2.4 billion, translating to $2.3 billion of free cash flow (capex was just $65 million in the quarter). Free cash flow conversion is now tracking near 90% of Adjusted EBITDA. Unrestricted cash, equivalents, and short-term investments stood at $6.1 billion at quarter-end.

$3 billion Q1 buyback: largest pace ever

Uber executed $3.0 billion of share buybacks in Q1 2026, more than 65% above the $1.8B repurchased in Q1 2025 and the largest single-quarter pace in company history. The repurchases drew against Uber's prior $7B authorization announced in February 2025. Notably, the Q1 buyback pace alone, if maintained, implies a $12 billion annual repurchase rate: well above the prior authorization and likely to require either a fresh authorization later in 2026 or a meaningful pace moderation.

Strong Buy consensus, ~35% implied upside.

UBER closed May 5 at $73.20 and traded between $72.67 and $74.80 on May 6 before the earnings move; the stock jumped roughly 10% intraday after the print on the strength of the bookings beat and Q2 guide. The stock's 52-week range is $68.46 to $101.99, putting today's price action well below the recent high but materially above the recent low.

Analyst sentiment

The 33-analyst consensus carries a Strong Buy rating, with 48% Strong Buy, 45% Buy, 6% Hold, and zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The consensus 12-month price target is approximately $107, implying around 35% upside from the May 5 close. Guggenheim's $125 target is the highest in the bullish camp; TD Cowen carries $108 (Buy). Bill Ackman's Pershing Square recently named Uber a core AI-era holding, citing the platform's embedded membership economics and structural AV optionality.

AV strategy update

Uber's autonomous vehicle strategy got new color on the call. Waymo is live in Austin and Atlanta with a target of 15 cities globally by year-end 2026. Uber announced a $500 million commitment to Lucid for 35,000 robotaxis paired with Nuro's self-driving technology and Hertz's new Oro Mobility unit managing fleet operations. CEO Khosrowshahi described AV as another trillion-dollar TAM and emphasized Uber does not view the market as winner-take-all.

Mobility softness, AV competition, fuel.

Primary risks

• Mobility revenue softness sustainability. Q1 Mobility revenue missed by $310M ($6.8B vs $7.11B est). Management framed this as macro-driven (gas, weather, geopolitics), but a second consecutive Mobility miss in Q2 would force investors to question whether the issue is structural.
• Equity investment volatility. The $1.5B Q1 mark-to-market headwind on Didi and Grab illustrates that GAAP earnings are subject to material non-operating swings. A future positive revaluation would help, but the volatility itself complicates the reported earnings narrative.
• AV competitive risk. Waymo, Cruise, Tesla, and Zoox all represent eventual fully autonomous platforms that could partially disintermediate Uber's driver-network advantage. Uber is hedged via its multi-partner AV strategy, but the unit economics remain unproven.
• Regulatory and insurance. California insurance reform helped LA market growth in Q1, but rideshare insurance costs remain a multi-year headwind in several major markets.
• Macro fuel and labor costs. U.S. gas prices up roughly 50% since February tied to Iran-Israel conflict pressures driver economics. Uber unveiled fuel discounts and offers for drivers in late March, but the cost pressure remains a near-term overhang.

Catalysts to watch

• Q2 2026 print (early August). First test of the $56.25B-$57.75B Gross Bookings guide and whether Mobility recovers from the Q1 softness.
• Waymo expansion to a third city. Investors are looking for a third named US city beyond Austin and Atlanta. Any announcement would mark the transition from pilot to national rollout.
• New buyback authorization. At the Q1 pace, Uber will exhaust the prior $7B authorization within roughly two more quarters. A fresh authorization or first-ever dividend declaration is a credible 12-month catalyst.
• Expedia and Blacklane integration milestones. Hotel bookings via Uber app launched in April; Blacklane chauffeur acquisition extends the platform internationally. Engagement and revenue contribution will be the test.